Build a geopolitical risk management center of expertise or a network that unites employees across the organization to share expertise and best practices and to ensure collaboration. Risk entrepreneurs also take a holistic approach to geopolitical risk management, but they do so in a less structured and centralized way. Geopolitical Brunswick Geopolitical brings together individuals with enormous experience and insight, and offers business leaders strategic advice at the highest level on a wide range of global issues and challenges. Risk Consulting. Marcin Grajewski, The EU strategic autonomy debate: What think tanks are thinking, European Parliament Think Tank, March 30, 2021, europarl.europa.eu. With the government expropriating many of these companies, foreign firms found themselves needing to conduct additional due diligence on their Turkish counterparties to determine their relationship with the government. Providing a regular forum for a board to examine pressure points and operating realities from multiple perspectives and air diverging views doesnt just improve decision making and establish an organizations appetite for riskit helps create consensus across leadership on the issues of the day. Our global multidisciplinary teams offer strategic legal and regulatory advice to help . Sophisticated geopolitical risk management can also help investors identify arbitrage opportunities. The companies with the most disciplined approach, however, often use a combination of processes and tools to look at risks during different time frames and with different rates of periodic review. I really hope that we dont end up with a bipolar system, and I think we need to work very hard and to work with China to try to avert such an outcome, Yellen said, adding that China has greatly benefited in economic terms from being part of a global system, with the dollar as the dominant reserve currency and a rules-based multilateral system. Already a member? Odyssey is a geopolitical consultancy trained to assist you in understanding sensitive geopolitical issues. Tailored, high-impact executive workshops, Speaking engagements and macro strategy conversations. Each event carries it own risks, and each risk its own consequences. Yet, companies find Geopolitical Risk difficult to fully understand and even more challenging to manage. Never miss an insight. How to factor geopolitical risk into technology strategy | EY - US Trending US pandemic response and relief funding - proactively mitigating fraud, waste and abuse 2 Feb 2023 The COO Imperative: How human emotions can unlock supply chain success 23 Jan 2023 Consulting 2023 Global economic outlook: Transforming uncertainty into opportunity Forecasting government action and decisions. Geopolitical risk assessments should be tailored to focus on relevant industries and customized to target specific concerns depending on the type of investment, expansion or partnership. Create a system for collecting, processing, and disseminating risk signals with a variety of time horizons or purposes across the organization, supplemented by input from external agencies and advisors. Operations in countries with poor human rights records can cause supply chain disruptions but can also lead to reputational damage and give rise to class action lawsuits, public boycotts or stockholder divestment campaigns. Thank you! China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful . One Western energy company, for instance, credited the skills and transparency of its government relations staff for being able to operate simultaneously in two Middle Eastern nations despite strong political tensions between the two governments. All rights reserved. being employed directly by an oil firm or airline . Sometimes, the payoff is simply that the company can continue doing business as usual. Improve your understanding and modeling of country and economic risk across countries and sectors. Some of these political consulting clients include: Airbnb. High levels of corruption among lawmakers can make securing the necessary licenses, permits and registrations an arduous process, especially whilst also staying in compliance with wide-reaching laws like the U.S. FCPA. for political and security risk firms that sell their services or analysis to client companies (e.g. Boston Consulting Group 2023. While no one can predict the future . In 2020, it will move beyond strategic tech . Part of managing geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative. In addition to their normal duties, country chairs are responsible for liaising with all external stakeholdersincluding national and local governments, community organizations, and other enterprises. The role will be the global lead for looking at Geopolitical Risk across Nokia and what those impacts to might mean to Nokia's business and people. Because the company sells its products almost everywhere, problems that pop up in one country often may have already been solved in another. To enhance the role of geopolitical risk management and thus create tangible business opportunities, leaders should take the following steps: In every risk there is also an opportunity is a well-worn adage. After consulting with top business leaders and legal, public-policy, and risk professionals at Fortune 500 companies in multiple industries, we suggest that company leaders can use a five-pronged approach to managing geopolitical risk. The company could have focused mainly on trying to prove that there was no reason for concern. Companies with robust compliance programs should consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments as part of their regular due diligence workflows. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has . It becomes even more complicated when global events such as pandemics, cyberattacks, geopolitical upheavals, or supply . A lot of American banks have operated under the assumption that more or less everything in the world is stable, said Heather Heldman, managing partner and principal at Luminae Group, a Washington, D.C.-based geopolitical risk consulting firm. "autoplay":true, Such a test would include a time frame for execution and possible technical options. Citi. (See Exhibit 2.). Companies should also consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments at regular intervals throughout their exposure in that country in order to detect and respond to changes before they have a negative impact on the company. Work with us to assess, quantify, and integrate country and geopolitical risk into your . Start with the board Many company boards already deliberate geopolitical risks to one degree or another. Instead, they depend on personnel from government relations, strategy, and other business functions to identify and mitigate risks, with one function coordinating and consolidating input. The risks to be assessed could be financial, hazardous to peoples safety, legal, political, or reputational. 3 Commodity prices rose sharply 4 after Russia . Political risk consulting. An escalation of geopolitical events can lead to outright wars . Get the latest news and intelligence on global issues impacting business, politics, economics, military, security and energy. CFOs' assessments of the economy in Q3. The negative effects of climate change and progressively severe and frequent extreme weather events are becoming harder to ignore. Many governments have introduced laws requiring companies to take actions to mitigate the risk of adverse human rights impacts. | Eurasia Group is the world's leading global political risk research and consulting firm. We are constantly searching for overlooked assets where we can navigate the risk, while others are unwilling or unable to, an executive of a private-equity firm with a decades-long record of success in emerging markets told us. Geopolitics is personal. Adept & highly organized self-stater. Putting politics first since 1998. For decades, companies built their . As geopolitical events can influence market conditions in industrialized countries just as much as they can impact developing countries, assessing and understanding them through the conduct of an effective geopolitical risk assessment will help mitigate risk exposure. Capital reserves, credit portfolios, investment policies and capital and debt profiles all demand constant scrutiny to adequately manage and mitigate risk. Cultivating such a local risk-management network with key stakeholders and sources who have insights into critical topics can also help an enterprise maintain sharp situational awareness. Managing geopolitical risk. The firm serves financial institutions, private equity . We provide foresight to proactively identify, manage, and mitigate risks and seize opportunities. Partner & Director, Global Trade & Investment, Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Leader, Energy Practice. Internationally it poses increasing management challenges, particularly at board level. | Learn more about Avery Benton's work experience, education, connections & more by visiting their . [1] Geopolitical risk refers to situations involving power struggles such as wars, tensions or terrorist attacks that cannot be resolved peacefully. Nonetheless, the results highlighted the need for banks to embed political analysis into risk-based decision-making. Economic and Geopolitical scenarios Global geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty have increased dramatically over the past decade, according to leading indices. The EY survey last year on bank risk management noted that chief risk officers may be underestimating the potency of political change (with) only about half viewing (geo)political risks as among the most important emerging risks over a five-year horizon this is down from 60% in our last survey in 2019. Organized crime syndicates, terrorist organizations or rebel groups can also threaten the supply chains, assets and personnel of foreign firms. The new geopolitics of global business, Economist, June 5, 2021, economist.com. A holistic view uses four lenses: global geopolitical trends and scenarios, ongoing operations, investment decision making, and frequent monitoring of evolving events and development that can affect the business. Leaders face an uncertain landscape. In the aftermath of the US presidential election, CFOs appeared very optimisticwith that quarter's survey registering the sharpest uptick in sentiment in its seven-year history. Another short-term action is to invest in strategy, PR, and government-relations teams that can serve as the companys points of contact with senior government officials and key stakeholders in multiple jurisdictions. accounting technology, guidance, and expertise, Let us help you solve Systemic-risk managers adopt a primarily defensive position, focusing on protecting their businesses from the downsides of change. Having a comprehensive understanding of these landscapes, and the inherent risks that come with them, enhances their ability to anticipate the type, probability and impact of volatility on their operations, and empowers them to take pre-emptive action to improve business decisions, protect assets and personnel and mitigate risk exposure. Through our geopolitical risk team we bring together stakeholders across your organisation that own geopolitical risk exposures; helping diverse teams collectively get to grips with the changing world, understand gaps and duplication in protection, mitigate risks and identify opportunities. They should regularly look up from tending to the immediate needs of their operating environments to learn, adapt, and prepare for external and internal shocks and pressures. All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. "autoplaySpeed":8000 This could suggest CROs view this area as continuing to carry business importance but believe that the pace and scale of political change may be slowing.. As a result, the company was able to significantly expand its cloud business and gain advantage over competitors that were slower to act. Geopolitical forces at work in the economy. The geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly and creates multi-dimensional challenges for global organisations. As one of the country's top political consulting firms, Global Strategy Group has worked with many diverse and high-profile clients to serve a range of unique needs. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. Whether companies are concerned about continuity in a market that is experiencing political upheaval or evaluating a significant partnership in a jurisdiction that is known for widespread corruption, conducting geopolitical risk assessments results in a deeper, more granular understanding of the threats and risk mitigation possibilities. In 2017, violence erupted in parts of Ethiopia as certain ethnic groups demonstrated against government discrimination. Shipping will increasingly be drawn into geopolitical disputes," says Kinsey. With tectonic shifts in geopolitics rumbling from Chinas reemergence on the global stage, a climate crisis, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, companies must be on guard. Human Rights Violations Our Asia-Pacific footprint is now a huge advantage.. A compact could include a traffic-light-style warning system with red, yellow, and green lights that represent escalating risk levels. 3 <br><br>Her expertise is sought out and appreciated by multinationals, Crown corporations, associations, small businesses, employee-owned companies, nonprofits, and First Nations . Depending on the circumstance, a companys leaders may have to weigh the effect that political or media scrutiny on the companys operations in one area has on its holdings in other locales. Not engaging in such discussions in the current geopolitical context would be malpractice. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, age, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity / expression, national origin, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected under federal, state or local law, where applicable, and those with criminal histories will be considered in a manner consistent with applicable state and local laws.Pursuant to Transparency in Coverage final rules (85 FR 72158) set forth in the United States by The Departments of the Treasury, Labor, and Health and Human Services click here to access required Machine Readable Files or here to access the Federal No Surprises Bill Act Disclosure. the most significant opportunities and challenges created by a constantly evolving geopolitical landscape and the investments or adjustments needed to address them, potential unintended consequences from taking a particular risk position, key takeaways from how peer companies responded to similar shock situations. They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. Financial risks have probably never been more acute. Integrate geopolitical signals and risk assessment into strategic-planning processes and define actionable strategies to both protect the business and take advantage of emerging opportunities. The businesss board can apply a materiality test to pinpoint what it should dedicate time to discussing. To ingrain the importance of external relations throughout their organizations, some companies rotate high performers and potential candidates for upper management into country leadership positions, where risk management becomes one of their duties. We support each client's unique risk profile . 08 March 2022. Thats one finding from the US National Intelligence Councils report Global Trends 2040: A more contested world. And a narrative that works in one place could inhibit market opportunities in another or create sensitivities among regions. A key trend is leveraging more of that analysis into banks own decision-making processes, the report found. Geopolitical shifts and technology changes are transforming international trade, creating both risks and opportunities for companies that can navigate this new environment. BCG X disrupts the present and creates the future by building bold new tech products, services, and businesses. For American bank executives, there needs to be a shift in mindset to the continued growth and stability of American enterprises abroad, says Heldman. Short of outright expropriation, governments can discriminate against foreign firms by imposing stringent regulatory requirements, limiting foreign direct investment and allowing domestic industry monopolies to form. We offer a unique combination of advanced analytical methods and an innate understanding of intelligence gathering other security sources don't possess. These organizations take many forms. Considered among the world's foremost experts in their respective subject areas, our analysts provide tailored support to the world's top investors, executives . A major global technology company offers another good illustration. Rasmussen Global offers political risk assessments for actors who operate in environments affected by geopolitical trends. Access daily analysis of world events, detailed country reports, proprietary country and sovereign risk ratings, and comprehensive economic forecasts and historical data to assess your companys investments and future growth, Foresight Security for Corporate Security This combination of short-term and long-term monitoring allows for timely action. Kroll is not affiliated with Kroll Bond Rating Agency, Companies also have been attempting to measure the impact of their lobbying efforts on governments, such as by benchmarking the success of their advocacy compared with that of their industry peers or estimating potential cost savings. Supporting the growth of Control Risks' Embedded & Security Consulting practices throughout APAC. Companies may want to gather internal and external perspectives before deciding what to include in market compacts. Note: Political risk consulting firms specializing in analyzing the business risk presented by the political environment in a region or country--including but not limited to regulatory risk in particular sectors, risks of appropriation or nationalization, and broader geopolitical risks. Sydney Olympic Park NSW 2127 MAX's Geopolitical Intelligence Services knows your part of the world because we're part of it too. Derek Leatherdale and Hanif Barma from the Risk Coalition identify in this article the key things that any board or risk committee should consider in the context of the complex and volatile geopolitical environment in which business now operates. Something went wrong. Our methodology allows us to assess differences in operating models and the degree of process maturity relative to industry practices as well as to identify opportunities for improvement. The geopolitical risk firm that helps you understand the world. Andrew S. Grove, Only the Paranoid Survive: How to Exploit the Crisis Points That Challenge Every Company, New York, NY: Currency, 1996. Trade Wars and a Stronger Europe. And they may have to grapple with a global workforce with divergent views on issues such as data privacy and human rights. Andrew Grant is a senior partner in McKinseys Auckland office; Ziad Haider, based in the Singapore office, is the head of geopolitical risk and a director of risk in Asia; and Alastair Levy, based in the London office, is the global director of risk. Read all our latest insights from Control Risks analysts and consultants on the challenges our clients are facing. Below are several examples in which Kroll was able to help clients anticipate the type, probability and impact of geopolitical volatility on its operations in key emerging markets. The Company: International Consulting Company is a global consulting firm based in Hong Kong. Holistic-risk evaluators have the most highly developed geopolitical risk management operations. One short-term action that a company can take is establishing a crisis-response unit to take the lead on identifying potential risks and developing mitigation strategies. Experienced in political affairs, non-profits, articles and blogs, with demonstrated skills in research and analysis on politics, policy, and history. Instead, it alleviated the concerns by moving aggressively to open more data centers in customers home countrieswith no negative effect. firms, Access global tax, legal, No matter their starting point, BCG can help. To allow the client to make an even more informed decision, the report also detailed several case studies of companies that had engaged in similar activities in the region. for broadcasters and publishers, Explore our tax and By closely monitoring growing public support for greenhouse gas mitigation measures in many countries, for example, a leading oil-and-gas company was able to invest in renewable natural-gas technologies much earlier than its peers. Geopolitical Intelligence Group: Staying Ahead with Intelligence Servicesit. They may have to balance, given the risks, near- and long-term market priorities. Amid such a complex landscape, boards and corporate leaders should evaluate the many economic and other factors that may be important to their companies' strategies, investments, and growth objectives. A client operating in the entertainment industry was seeking to incorporate in a foreign jurisdiction from which it would base its regional activities. Nearly half of bank CROs (48%) plan to broaden methods for identifying new or emerging political risks and a quarter plan to build new tools for qualitative tracking and reporting on political risk measures.. New York NY 10055. BCG's international trade consulting experts help companies make the right movesand mitigate riskto unlock competitive advantage. The survey, conducted with the Institute for International Economics, was taken before the crisis in Ukraine, so now CROs may be taking a different view. Australia. Theyre the equity investors that reap rich returns by snapping up stakes in undervaluedbut soundassets in the challenging emerging markets that others shun. Managing risk in today's environment is complex. "arrows": false, For instance, it can compensate for the value of an asset following an expropriation or . Andrew Cuomo, Governor (NY) Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. This sentiment largely continued in the second . Nascent-risk managers use an almost entirely defensive strategy, with minimal organization and processes. Advanced Country Analysis & Forecasting Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. Prudent geopolitical risk management also requires understanding how to deal with issues that cross borders. Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. 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